07
Aug 2024
Trump vs. Biden-Harris Jurors
Four years have passed since the 2020 election and prior to picking a jury I am still asked what it means if someone supported Joe Biden or Donald Trump. I usually say it depends on the case. In June, Trial Methods conducted a survey and questioned 430 jury-eligible people across the country about their attitudes pertaining to litigation. Respondents were from geographically, politically and demographically diverse regions and asked a series of questions online. They were also asked which candidate they supported in the 2020 presidential election and which candidate they plan to support in 2024. Our next survey will ask about whether a jury-eligible supported either Kamala Harris or Donald Trump, but for purposes of these findings, it is safe to conclude there is significant crossover between Biden supporters and pro-Harris jurors.
With this information, I performed what is known in the world of statistics as a crosstab and chi-square. This is performed in order to determine whether one variable correlates with another. Keep in mind this analysis did not try to ascertain whether being a Trump or Biden supporter translates into different verdict decisions, but only whether whom someone voted for correlates with various pre-existing attitudes. Do Trump and Biden people see the litigation world through a different lens? Here are some interesting results that are either significant in the formal statistical sense or trends that are worth considering:
Corporate Lawsuits
Would you find it difficult to deliver a jury verdict that meant an injured party would receive no money?
44% of Biden supporters said YES to this question while 43% of Donald Trump jurors similarly said YES.
Juries should punish corporations for unethical conduct even if that conduct was legal:
55% of Biden supporters AGREE with this compared to 45% of Trump supporters.
If you heard about
allegations of corporate misconduct which would you most likely believe:
[The corporation did something wrong OR Someone is trying to get some easy
money]
86% of Biden voters chose “Company did something wrong” while 48% of pro-Trump folks said the same thing.
Generally do you think
individuals who file lawsuits are:
[Trying to place responsibility where it belongs OR Refusing to take
responsibility for actions]
85% of Biden backers indicate “Trying to place responsibility where it belongs” whereas 56% of Trump people said the same thing. On the flip side, 15% of pro-Biden jurors chose “Refusing to take responsibility for their actions,” where this was 44% for Trump jurors.
Overall, there is more anti-corporate sentiment coming from the Biden people, but not on all measures. This is not a surprise. In fact, a deeper analysis shows that voting for Biden means one is more likely in favor of punitive damages and believing that making companies pay big jury awards is the best way to make them follow the law. Also, Biden supporters feel that race and gender discrimination on the job in the US are very common while Trump backers believe this is uncommon.
As a jury consultant, any information is good information, so I would be happy to know whether a prospective juror voted for Trump or the democratic nominee. But like most other inquiries in voir dire, I would want to ask the key open-ended follow up “Why?” question. But this is unrealistic as most Judges rightfully shut questioning down when attorneys try and determine who a potential juror voted for, let alone why. The privacy and sanctity of the voting booth is the priority. But what if we were able to ascertain someone’s political leaning before selecting a jury? Social media research on prospective jurors ahead of time often makes this very possible. I would certainly want to know the extent of enthusiasm for each particular candidate, as many members of the electorate vote for one candidate because of resolute dislike of the other. The data does suggest that Biden voters harbor attitudes more aligned with a classic pro-plaintiff juror.
Same for Trump voters – who are the Republicans that mostly vote Republican and did not like either candidate versus who are the die-hard Trump people? There is an archetype Trump voter that was overlooked during the 2016 election and to some extent in 2020. And “overlooked” is the key defining term. When looking at personality dimensions, the most common trait among core Trump supporters is the feeling that they have been left behind, that no one speaks for them, and that they have had their voice taken from them. They are seeking empowerment and desperately need a voice. One might think this would make them prone to wanting to send a message against a large company that is seen as part of the establishment, but the data suggest otherwise. One might also think a Trump supporter may tend to think corporate executives are all part of the foundations that have “rigged” the system against people like them, so a large verdict might get their attention to make the American working landscape great again. But our survey did not lend support for this.